Discovery flies on eve of Atlantic hurricane season & Arthur forms

10 am CDT, Central pressure 954 MB. Latest Satellite data shows deep convection all quads with 850 to 700 MB dry air incursion starting to wane. 300 MB anti-cyclone shows no obstruction to venting. Residual dry air SW Quad.

Fred

12 EDT update.

Convective boom SE quad producing CDO. West South west quad shows mid level short wave interaction resulting from long wave intrusion over West Texas. Residual 800 to 700 MB dry air still being absorbed.

I lied, I love this crap. Next up-date 1 hour.

Fred

I may occasionally allude to ["crystal balls"] in modern art, in order to mock the state of confusion, but I don't use one. I also don't stare into bowls of water, but keep guessing.

Here's an interesting fact for you. Hurricane Ike is likely carrying more [kinetic energy] than any hurricane ever seen by science, in the Gulf of Mexico.

I hear you Merlin.

Fred

1:00 EDT update.

Satellite data shows intensifying Hurricane. Sea levels continue to rise. Astronomical high tide is also in the mix. Hope to have a Central pressure next hour.

Fred

2:00 EDT update.

Central Pressure 957 MB.. Do not let this fool you. Satellite data shows central venting will go to max next 3 hours. Expect Cat 3 or 4 at landfall. Yep that is my forecast. Us weather types got to lay it out. Please be easy. Now is the time we would just like to be looking at rocks.

Fred
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0z-bVvAt9M&feature=related

I'm surprised you didn't pick "Rhinestone Cowboy," Fred, but I've got a better one from the ole memory banks.

Here's [Marie Antoinette] in Houston, on why big hurricanes are good for some people.

Now Merlin,

Do not go ignorant on me. Galveston is about to be destroyed, again. If you want to post symbols that is cool. Do not mess with the weatherman.

Fred

3:00 EDT up-date,

Ike is still trying to recover from dry air intrusion. New convective boom ENE of center.

Fred

4:00 EDT up-date,

Ike is developing broad center with surface anti-cyclone exiting East coast. this will enhance wind fields. This is reminiscent of Emily. Will monitor Central pressure. Center up to 70 miles wide with new convective bomb SE of center. Buoy reports winds NNE 107 gust to 126.

This is a dangerous storm with rapid intensification still possible before landfall.

Fred

5:00 EDT up-date,

55 mile center with new convective bomb SE Quad. 500 MB Long wave moving out of west Texas. This should move Him North. Expect conditions not experienced since 1900.

Central Pressure 955 MB

Trend is eye wall continuing to shrink.

Fred

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=multiple&itype=ir
Well guys, If you want to look in the visible spectrum.

If you want to look in infra red.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

Fred

Up-date

Eye down to 45 miles. This ain’t good folks.

Fred

Eye wall 100 miles off shore.

Fred

Convection rotating on Eastern Flank.

Fred

We haven't seen a traditional eye wall, typical of most hurricanes, since Ike's interaction with Cuba. It's amazing to see it wait until landfall to form this feature.

6:00 update.

Intensification immenent. Pressure falling rapidly Texas Coast. Eye wall tightening. 45 miles

Fred

Here's a [long range radar loop] out of Galveston.

Look again brother. Eye wall 40 miles and shrinking. Convection all quads. Pressure falling rapidly. RW, Interaction with Cuba or the Yucatan is significant.

Fred

Convective bomb NE quad. Thanks for the loop RW. I am use to satellite only.

Fred