Discovery flies on eve of Atlantic hurricane season & Arthur forms

Once again, the Cape Verde season is blooming early this year. The Sahara has just blown us another impressive kiss.

According to the scientists in charge of our "destiny" ... [Cape Verde-type hurricanes] are those Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that develop into tropical storms fairly close (in rare years (like 1995) there may be some in late July and/or early October. The numbers range from none up to around five per year - with an average of around 2.

Five, six, pick up [sticks ...]

I find it interesting that NASA isn't flying into space right now, during the heart of the hurricane season. I'm sure there are good reasons, but why so long before another launch?

RW,

Lets follow the storm. I got to post a discussion anyway.

At 12:30 the broad center of Tropical storm Fay was off-shore of Cuba by about 60 miles. Most of the convection was East North East of the center with dry down-slope evident in the southwest quadrant. Maximum sustained winds of 60 mph at flight level 900 ft will extrapolate to 50 mph. Expect maximum sustained winds in convective bands of 60 mph north and east of the center.

Forecast:

Expect North Northwest movement with a slow down in forward speed next 12-24 hours. Will monitor storm for possible rapid development late afternoon as the center moves into Keys. Weak steering currents along with Building surface ridge and departing mid level trof could develop col over the area with weak mid and upper-level winds

Fredrick

Up-date

At 2:30 pm EDT satellite and radar data continues to show open wave moving due north at 15 mph

Dry air has encroached in the southwest quadrant so far. Forward momentum will slow next 6 hours. Will monitor next 6 hours on the IR spectrum for any changes.

Fred

Up-date 3:30 EDT.

Rapid convective development NW of center. Movement now NW of North at 15 mph.

Dry air at 850 and 700 mb Southern quad should wane next 3 hours. Surface pressure 1002 mbs

Fred.

Up-date 4:15 pm EST

5:00 advisory will have center 60 miles NE of Key West Florida moving NNW at 15 mph.
Maximum sustained winds at 60 mph gust to 70.

Maximum surface pressure falls of two mbs with central pressure of 999 mbs next advisory unless further up-dates.

Fred

Up-date 4:35 EDT

Pressure falling rapidly over Florida Keys. Eye wall developing. Storm moving NNW at 13 mph.

Fred

Up-date 4:56 pm EDT

Decided to lower pressure to 998 mbs due to air force reserve data. Upped winds to 60 guts to 70

Residents of SW Florida should prepare for Hurricane conditions next 24 hours. Max winds 110 mph guts to 135. That would be cat 2.

Fred

Up-date 5:40 EDT

Pressures continue to fall over the keys with minimum central pressure 995 mbs.

Residents of western Florida should prepare for major hurricane.

Fred

Up-date 5:55 EDT

Forward movement has slowed with rapid eye-wall development. Central pressure 990 mbs

Steering currents will weaken next 6 hrs. If this storm stalls all bets are off.

Fred

Up-date 6:45 EDT

Latest radar shows storm moving east at 7 kts. Feeder band developing SW quad.

Fred

Figured to give you guys a radar and satellite link

Radar

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

Sat

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&isingle=multiple&itype=ir

The satilite is IR, its a weatherman thing.
We look at them every damn day.

Fred

Latest radar shows a minimal Hurricane max winds 75 mph moving NNW at 13 mph. Will upgrade next advisory.

Expect 4-8 inches of rain southern Florida with winds increasing tonight.

Fred

Looks like I got to sign off. Follow the links. Looks like I will be on a C-130 flying into the storm tonight. Catch up with you boys in the morning.

Fred

[Link]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 192043
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS
STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR
AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS
KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE
CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION
IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE
AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. CURRENTLY FAY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF FAY. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.

THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 27.3N 81.0W 55 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 20/0600Z 28.2N 80.5W 55 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 80.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 30.0N 81.4W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 22/1800Z 30.5N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.4N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

How about that God Almighty for a perfect soft landing on the Cape?

What are the [odds] of a named storm landing on, better yet, STANDING ON, a certain place on [the earth?] What do you [THINK?]

I think it's time to repent.

[Link]

What do I think?

I think "the insane ramblings of a religious crazy man is in the house".

Here's a better video for you.

Wise up and smell the science.