Chances that "they are rocks", simple math

Author Message
Extra Sense







PostPosted: June 24, 2004 8:41 AM 

Gentlemen,

First: please, keep in mind the fact that the [i]estimates[/i] which I use below, are very, very much skewed in favor of the "all are rocks" theory.

I use two convenient objects:
(a) manta ray with tail

(b) fish statue

I will prove that probability that they are "simply rocks" is less than 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000 !

(a)
Lets do some math, using the "manta ray with tail" picture.
Lets assume that there is 10,000,000,000=10[up]10[/up] rocks that can be considered for fossils in the area covered by rovers Smile
Lets assume that each of them has a small rock attached, which will play the beginning of the tail Smile

Lets assume that there is 1/100 chance that small rock has an another small rock attached on the right side of it and having right size, so that it forms next bone of the tail. A so on, and so forth. Smile
Since the "tail" has 12 bones, expected number of existing in the area "rock stingrays" will be 10[up]-14[/up] Cool
Lets assume that rovers photograph everyone of them, that exists.

We must conclude based on the assumptions and their consequences, that chances of us to have the existing picture if the object were of nonbiologial origin, would be less than 10[up]-14[/up], which is hundred thousand times less than 1 in 1,000,000,000 Razz
/14=24-10/

(b) Lets assume, that probability of photographing of fish like rock on mars is 1 Smile ,
and that there is 1,000 of them in the rovers covered area Smile
Now, let us focus on the string of similar dots leading to the fish tail. There is 7 of them.
Lets assume that chances that such line on the simple rock has one extra dot are 1 in 100. After all, I've never seen even three dots like this after viewing probably 10,000
rocks /which corresponds to 2 additions/.
The chances we would have a photo of the fish like rock would be than 10[up]-9[/up]
/9=12-3/
which is 1 in 1,000,000,000 as expected.

Whichever way you slice it, chances that we would have pictures we now have if "they all are rocks" theory were correct, are negligible.
Razz Razz Razz Razz

ES

Extra Sense


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PostPosted: June 24, 2004 9:21 AM 

I forget to mention, that chances of just these two items being photographed do multiply,

and are less than
1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000

Razz Razz Razz Razz Razz
ES

Anonymous


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PostPosted: September 27, 2005 4:22 PM 

i hate you Twisted Evil

Extra Sense


Posts: 1471

Reply: 3



PostPosted: September 29, 2005 3:32 PM 

I know, just love the truth

e Razz s




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