In our lifetime

I'm 53 years old. The question is, do you think in YOUR life time, will there be Mars explorers overturning these rocks? Will we be there in YOUR lifetime? I'd like to know how old you are and why or why not.

With the economic standards crying 'poor man' to the common man, it looks difficult to predict how many trips will be taken during the first half of the 21st century. We have seen a very professional swing poster occurring which has shaken the confidence of many or most, giving a cooler reception to high $$ ticket operations such as manned flight to inner solar system planets.
With the difference in cost for a orbiter such as MRO, Mars Express, and with the very successful production of those machines, the lack of those systems in conjunction with any manned flight would seem short-sighted. Mapping the various planets and satellites would prepare for future missions, and aid in a concurrent manned stopover. With new systems being designed currently, we may not see the same satellite types again, but they were very productive and represent recent technology.
A manned mission is still reliant upon research and production of future machinery, or adaptations and extensions of the current best efforts in testing, and the system s very tied to economics.
Frankly, I believe the future technology is submitted to a 'siege' by a portion of the population who do not want to see our technology extended to spaceflight, in addition to many other areas of technical development which they are predispositioned to disapprove of investments in. Given the vastness of the culture shock of the current economic standards adjustments, I believe it is more difficult to 'sell' the future promise of a pure research program such as planetary geology and tracking the missing organics content in the Mars surface survey.
Ideologically it is necessary and there is the impulse for many others to establish the process as a determined fixture of basic science, but how many trips are made will be an open question. As with travel to the Moon, the expense versus the actual benefits will become more defined with the argument drawing attention to the details of science returns for persons on Earth.
If the public government science community does not go, the militaries of several nations certainly would, none-the-less.
Many questions of geological history can be resolved with a chronology of the natural history of Mars on the record. Much of Mars appears as it was expected to appear. We have another door opening, however, and it was the matter of water, STP for Mars, the possible place of organic compound development in protected niches on Mars, and the demand to know whether both planets had the potential for life at some time throughout geologic history.
We have invested more commitment in adjusting the economics of common living this past year, than will be required to conduct the first manned landing or two on Mars, during my retirement approach. I am old enough to have seen the first robotic rovers sending back just a few images each, with qualities that I can now buy in a personal camera for about thirty dollars (a part of a days wage in the U.S). I now have and use two aging EOS 8MP Canon cameras, which are finer than the cameras on the first Mars rovers. I paid far less than a thousand for both, including all lens and accessories for the two. Those cameras are one of many by-products of the space industry which have graced our lives with healthful and improved conditions in living here on Earth. Much of our ability to predict the environmental disasters which are pending each year are tied to the devolving industry of space research.
Eventually the space industry may be a larger part of our investments govern mentally, and privately, but in all the by-products are designed to provide human safety under stress, and improve transport and travel comforts.
The basic research underway has a lifespan of hundreds of years for completion. The current small industry base need not be larger than it is for a manned landing, or several survey missions.
Any less investment would be unreasonable to expect.
As to a program of manned bases by several nations, and the value of the returns for the investments, I could only look to the past and the current benefits as examples.
Most all mapping and survey travel to unknown ports has been expensive in appearances. The travels have always changed our cultural and social fabric over time.
It seems the more difficult a mission is, the more motivated humans are to achieve the goals planned.
My question is, will we achieve a manned landing in the far polar reaches of Mars, or is it reserved for robotic travelers of a mechanical type? That looks like a combination mission, with the robotics for daily travel instrumentation, and sampling. Spoken of as a possibility in our lifetimes. We may see a manned landing before you and I achieve retirement qualifications.

Our current robotic travellers are a testimony for the value and power of solar power plants in our lifetimes giving us safe power, with less polluting effects, and a sustaining industry for the future.

.........
Aged and worn. Motor still runs, makes a little noise at times.

The first sentence was to state the word 'posture', not poster, as in an effort to impress or shock the assailed victims of a program or patterned behavior. A real problem, but one of known parameters despite the claim of common shock or disbelief. The use of the cash belies the concerns of the demanding parties. Can we admit the problem has 'died a quick death' this year? Adjustments in the deficit were well understood to be a program for the prior administrations of government in this country, and it did not happen when required, and, not so when requested by the public as well. Lack of timely concerns now threatens the basic science community, and the manned Mars travel.
I wanted to provide an additional image for those who have never looked at the images on my topic just below this one this April of 2009. NASA and related groups have given us a view of this world more accurate than we have ever seen prior to the 21st century.
Our economics is tied to the results of the space industry efforts and technologies.
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The ozone hole is only one of many reasons for the missions underway. It might never have been seen from Earth based equipment.
Earth may/will someday resemble Mars. Can we cope with the very large dangers we do not know about?

Read the NASA 50 Year Accomplishments survey for more about the healthful work of the industry. A manned mission is also tied to the basic science of human life, and survival on Earth in climatic change.

I'm 54, and I don't think I'll see it in my lifetime unless it's a privately funded excursion.

The massive spending and near perpetual debt that the current masters of NASA are bringing us will preclude manned flights to Mars.

Kevin

40 year ago man walked on the moon.

Shortly the US will be unable to put a man into low earth orbit.

Manned flight to Mars? Not likely.

I'm 50 and I've had the luck to "see" in my childhood, the Moon race and the subseguent tech benefits we all have had from the mission.
BUT-
Since we all "have learned" that "the cheaper-the better" (after the evil deregulation strategies) I personally don't think I could ever see a manned mission to mars in my lifetime.
Furthermore, things like "ideologies" (one of the strongest "motivating engines" men have in their within) are completely out of reach in our post-modern culture, nowadays.

Maybe emerging countries like China will probably land some poor Christ, there on the moon.
I think is technically, within their reach, and they can *earn alot* in terms of public image with this.
I think also that no nation, if not very very well motivated, could take on the risk of making a worlwide "poor figure" ... in the unlikely event of a spaceship disaster of any kind.
Forthermore, USA are not in this "pole position" for making this.
Also, because is within our reach to send automatic probes almost everywhere in the solar system.
So instead of a pluri-multibillion dollar for a manned mission, is way cheaper to send probes.
Probes could crash, won't die.

I would be *really very very happy* if I could "see" a sample return mission from Mars or a bigger and "stronger" rover out there.

Personally I wouldn't expect anything better than this in the next decades.

ciao to all
Mario

I am planning to live for 128 years - maybe 256 - so maybe...just maybe, a manned Mars mission may happen in my lifetime.

But if I wish to understand the historic first words spoken on Mars, I think I will have to learn Chinese.

The Chinese will have to do something with all that worthless American paper, so they might as well buy a little American aerospace technology. But they may decide to buy a million tractors instead.

For the next 50 years my money is on the tractors - some of which may be sent to Mars to prepare the way for the far, far future Chines colony. ( There are still some benefits to planned economies. )

I am 48 and I am not sure I will even see a sample return mission unlike Hort I plan on leaving this place at a normal age of I suppose 70ish but it all seems to have ground to a halt Manned Mission wise. I was at a Euro Astro Conference yesterday and there was a hell of a lot of telescope projects on display andwith more probes going to the Moon and into deep space to hunt Comets and the like. ExoMars was there but no one seemed to be sure of the launch date I might even miss that at this rate and no real word on MSL either. There is talk of a Russian (Phobos-Grunt)sample return from Phobos but will that really count? it seems to me that there are so many "deliver it quick" for a small budget projects out there forget the Big One, China will piggy back this mission with Yinghou-1 so not sure how ready they are or if NASA going to help them out any time soon. Missions take so long to get launched and arrival dates of 2015 and return to Earth in 2020 suggests to me not even Hort is going to make it!
Hayabusa is on its way home with samples from an Asteroid but could be so badly damaged from the landing on Itokawa it may all be a waste of time, so with future missions like this we could have a lot of trial and error. There is a lot of Comet chasing going on and we will build Moon bases over the next 50 years and perhaps start Wars over the ownership of a Crater or a funny coloured rock. My bet is the first words from Mars will be North Korean singing a favourite Karaoke number by Elvis sometime in the next Century. Hey ho.

The first Manned mission will be in the year 2065. The first words spoken near the surface will be, “oh s**t.” The first successful landing will be November 16th 2087.

This of course is dependent on the Earth not getting sucked into a black hole in 2012.

Fred

As a resident of London and a Council Tax payer I can confirm that the Black Hole in our 2012 Olympic Budget and City has already arrived.

Event Horizons are so pretty aren't they?

Nothing like your Wallet getting stretched by a few Light Years give or take a 100 Meters!

I'm 52, and I will be the first man on Mars. My first words will be "Hva er det som lurer bak den steinen der?"

If there is a quantum leap in propulsion technology (or out of propulsion technology) we will see a Mars visit in my lifetime.
I am 56.

Stan

While I normally deplore the way people link songs in bloggs, this offering is different and I am sure some of you have already enjoyed it.

The European science community at Cerne have real talent.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6aU-wFSqt0

Hi Mizar!

what does it means:

"Hva er det som lurer bak den steinen der?"

it seems to me, already pure Martian native language...
isn't it?

joking! hehe!

ciao!

Mizar, in regards to the early color branding of Mars, the first words on the surface rather have to be dutch

Topic related: If we would skip manned moon exploration and concentrate on Mars chances would be not too bad to see man on Mars in the next 30 years.
Moon is a realy boring target, only interesting for planetary schience, astronomy and ufo-fans and a waste in human exploration efforts. Advanced robotic exploration is sufficient for moon science imo. Mars however is in badly need for human explorers. If there only would be more public motivation and interest in Mars exploration...

I read a lot of science fiction in my youth and of course the space exploration in those stories was always manned, but the real future often surprises us. I've got a feeling that we are on the cusp of a change in attitude and that the super-successful MER missions are partly driving that change. I think that we may be starting to realize that space travel isn't really for humans present in the flesh, that its just too dangerous and expensive - a twentieth century approach now obsolete.

Kye>>>

My exact sentiments also [your 15 above]

The Russians have 6 already in a 500 day confinement stage to 'observe' their well being in close quarters-complete with smelly socks, bad breath and urine stained pants. To me this is definitely silly. They are living in a gravity fed environment, and if any of them wanted out they hit the RED button to escape...but many of us discussed this stuff a few years ago.

I was never ever an advocate of going to Mars...the very first thing is that the damned planet is not even in the habitable zone [read Goldilocks] OK it has the ice...big deal...we have ice right here on Earth and we are not doing anything with it. And with a little in-depth astronomy reading all exo-planets beyond the G-Zone has it too. Its a waste of money to trip to Mars. Keep the robots for these dead worlds and let humans explore the water planets...there has to be some sensibility towards spending along with science reason and gain, and I am definitely not an accountant nor have ever taken that approach to planning anything. But, a split [humanoid-robot or human] of the work load has to be determined in the minds of those involved with the future process of thinking to move space science forward properly.

The SF books are just that. Light-hearted entertainment with an awful lot of thought behind it. I have always enjoyed SF, my fav is Stranger in a Strange Land and the stranger is from Mars!!!

There is no way I will entertain a Mars visit and at vxiii it makes for continued good SF, all over again-but perhaps with real science twisted plots involved! I would like to live longer as Hort says above, way too much science unfolding today, which prematurely I could[tic]miss.

Now if we lived in the age of the TV episodes from 'Firefly' we wouldn't be discussing these matters at all.

yt
dx

Now if you guys really believe that space travel will be all bots then you underestimate Humans. The radiation issue is all but remedied with an artificial magnetic field. Centrifugal force takes care of weightlessness and beer and movies will kill the boredom during a long transit.

Bots only? Not a chance brother.

Fred

dx, Fred, I'm not saying that humans couldn't go into space. I'm saying that manned missions would be a very inefficient way to do planetary science. Almost all of the effort would be going to keep humans alive and safe out there. A little science might get tacked on if there were room and budget for it. I think that we should admit that manned spaceflight is basically a big-budget action-adventure movie that some would like to see made, but it isn't a better way to do science. Probably we will send people into danger eventually and that is maybe the only way that most humans could feel involved, but that effort will postpone scientific discovery not accelerate it.

Kye, I can not believe what I am reading. Bots can do little but give us the facts. It takes a human mind to put in context with all five senses. No way to calibrate color without human eyes. Then there is the failure issue. The truth is Oppy is just a big tease, and so are all the other Bots. Without Man it is nothing, nota, zilch. In other words without Man it just don’t count.

In honor of serpens

Fred

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFks9A9TCF0

Fred, Facts we could use, and there are plenty of human minds here on Earth to puzzle out what they mean. Human eyes just complicate the color issue. I'd take a 13 filter pancam anytime. On Mars outdoors we still couldn't hear, touch, smell or taste anything because of the necessity of wearing a spacesuit, and even indoors we'd be restricted because we would not want to contaminate our bodies with possible Mars life - we can't be properly sterilised before returning to Earth.

We'll explore space alright, but sending our bodies isn't the easiest or best way to do it.